The war on normal people - Andrew Yang

After reading A World Without Work - Andrew Susskind I wanted to get a broader view on the future of work. Andrew Yang

"The War on Normal People: The Truth About America's Disappearing Jobs and Why Universal Basic Income Is Our Future" is a 2018 book by Andrew Yang, an entrepreneur and former 2020 Democratic presidential candidate.

In his book, Yang focuses on the impact of automation and artificial intelligence on the job market, especially on traditional blue-collar and white-collar jobs. He argues that the displacement of workers due to technology advancements has already begun and is causing a significant socio-economic crisis.

Yang presents various statistics and studies to show that jobs in sectors like manufacturing, retail, call centers, and transportation are being automated at an alarming rate. He highlights that the current educational system and job retraining programs are not sufficiently preparing the workforce for the jobs of the future.

"The test is not “Will there be new jobs we haven’t predicted yet that appear?” Of course there will be. The real test is “Will there be millions of new jobs for middle-aged people with low skills and levels of education near the places they currently reside?” "

Most of my professional career I have spent in IT projects. All of these projects have had strong automation/optimisation targets. This quote therefore resonates well:

"Many of my friends work in technology and know that they are automating away other people’s jobs. For some of them, it’s a key part of their sales pitch. Many explicitly talk about how much cost savings will be realized by having fewer workers around."

And also:

"it is not the innovator’s job to figure out the social implications of what they do. Their job is to create and fund innovation in the market as cost-effectively as possible. This is itself a difficult job."

In the earlier chapters Yang describes some of the cities and towns in America that have been affected by the first wave of blue collar automation. It paints a pretty desperate picture and it shows quite clearly that the current economic system does not look after the people it puts out on the street.

Stephen Hawking, July 2015: “Everyone can enjoy a life of luxurious leisure if the machine-produced wealth is shared, or most people can end up miserably poor if the machine-owners successfully lobby against wealth redistribution. So far, the trend seems to be toward the second option, with technology driving ever-increasing inequality.”

Beyond job displacement, Yang also discusses the societal and psychological impacts of unemployment and underemployment. He explains that the loss of jobs is not just an economic issue but also contributes to problems like drug use, depression, and societal disillusionment.

He suggests that the current capitalist system, left to its own devices, will continue to benefit those who own and control the technologies causing this displacement, while the majority of people will face increasing economic insecurity.

"In the United States we want to believe that the market will resolve most situations. In this case, the market will not solve the problem—quite the opposite. The market is driven to reduce costs. It will look to find the cheapest way to perform tasks. The market doesn’t want to provide for unemployed truck drivers or cashiers. Uber is going to get rid of its drivers as soon as it can. Its job isn’t to hire lots of people—its job is to move customers around as efficiently as possible. The market will continue to throw millions of people out of the labor force as automation and technology improve."

As a solution, Yang proposes a Universal Basic Income (UBI), which he named the "Freedom Dividend." The Freedom Dividend would provide every American adult with $1,000 per month, no strings attached, financed by a value-added tax (VAT). He argues that UBI would help to alleviate poverty, stimulate the economy, and give people the freedom to pursue work that they find meaningful.

While he does not reject capitalism outright, he believes that significant reforms, like UBI, are needed for the system to work for all people in the face of technological changes. He often describes his approach as "human-centered capitalism" where the focus is on maximizing human well-being and fulfillment.

"We must make the market serve humanity rather than have humanity continue to serve the market."

"The logic of the meritocracy is leading us to ruin, because we are collectively primed to ignore the voices of the millions getting pushed into economic distress by the grinding wheels of automation and innovation. We figure they’re complaining or suffering because they’re losers."

"Human Capitalism would have a few core tenets:

1. Humanity is more important than money.

2. The unit of an economy is each person, not each dollar.

3. Markets exist to serve our common goals and values."

In conclusion, "The War on Normal People" is a call to action to rethink how work and value are understood in the face of rapid technological change. It provides a clear vision for how UBI could play a crucial role in ensuring a more equitable future.